We help the public by foreseeing and reacting to globally impactful and existential catastrophes. We forecast near-term risks, detect black swans earlier, and deploy our emergency response team to take mitigating action.

501(c)(3) charity; gifts are tax-deductible.
87¢ of each $1 spent went to programs.
$64K paid to officers and key staff.
Mission: Form 990 Part I, line 1 · Status: IRS Pub. 78 · Programs: Part IX · Pay: Part VII

Before you give

FY2025 · Form 990Independent: from IRS data, not the org
Download 990
IRS status
501(c)(3)
not on the IRS revocation list
Looks good: listed by the IRS and not on the revocation list.
IRS BMF · Auto-Revocation List
Tax-deductible gifts
Yes
Donations are tax-deductible
Looks good: the IRS lists gifts to it as deductible.
IRS Pub. 78 · IRS BMF
Latest return
FY2025
latest Form 990
Looks good: the latest return is for FY2025, 1 tax year back; within 2 tax years.
IRS e-file · Filing history
Surplus or deficit
2 of 2
filings with a surplus
Average surplus $342K a year · 70% of revenue · last 2 filings
Looks good: a surplus in 2 of the last 2 filings.
Pt I · Ln 19 · 2 filings
Spent on programs
87%
of spending
Looks good: 87% of spending went to programs; 75% or more.
Pt IX · Ln 25 · col B
Pay to officers and key staff
$64K
to officers and key staff · 23% of spending
Worth a look: pay to officers and key staff is 23% of spending; over 20%.
Pt VII · Sec A
30 mo
of spending, in cash
Looks good: 29.5 months of spending in cash; 3 or more.
Pt X · Ln 1–2 · Pt I · Ln 18
Named funders
3
named funders · $155K
Looks good: 3 funders name it on their filings; 3 or more.
Funders’ Sch. I, 990-PF
Liabilities
$17K
2% of total assets
Looks good: liabilities are 2% of assets; 50% or less.
Pt X · Ln 26
Independent board members
2
of 4 voting members
Fine: 2 of 4 voting members are independent, half.
Pt VI · Ln 1a–1b
Looks goodFineWorth a lookConcernNo data yetTap a box for the reason.
Revenue
$764K
+255% vs prior year
Spent
$284K
To programs
87%
Net assets
$683K
By yearFY2024–FY2025
Revenue
$764K
FY2025▲ +255%
Tap a bar for its year
Revenue by fiscal year
FY2024$215K
FY2025$764K
Expenses
$284K
FY2025▲ ×25
Tap a bar for its year
Expenses by fiscal year
FY2024$11K
FY2025$284K
Net assets
$683K
FY2025▲ +235%
Tap a bar for its year
Net assets by fiscal year
FY2024$204K
FY2025$683K

From the FY2025 Form 990 · see the original

Give Claim

Is it real?

Yes. Never revoked by the IRS. Latest filing on record: FY2025. IRS ruling in Jan 2025.

IRS Pub. 78 · IRS Auto-Revocation List · IRS Business Master File

Where the money goes

87 cents of each dollar spent went to programs.

Program services 87% · $248K Management & general 13% · $37K

Form 990 Part IX, line 25, columns B–D. Every line is in By the numbers.

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Who runs it and what they're paid

4 people listed on the 990; $64K paid to officers and key staff.

Part VII, Section A · reportable compensation
$64,167Pt VII · Sec A
Director
$0Pt VII · Sec A
$0Pt VII · Sec A
Director
$0Pt VII · Sec A

Ratan Rai Sur’s $64K as Officer is at the 80th percentile of top reported officer pay among 825 $100K–1M public safety & disaster nonprofits. Peer set: organizations in the same NTEE major field of work and revenue-size band, compared on each org’s own highest-paid officer/key-employee, from Form 990 Part VII / 990-PF Part VIII. Descriptive placement, not a verdict on whether the pay is appropriate.

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Questions the 990 asks

The form asks each of these directly. These are the filed answers.

  • Family or business ties among officersPt VI · Ln 2No
  • Top official's pay set by an independent reviewPt VI · Ln 15aYes

Programs and updates

Forecasting and responding to global catastrophes to protect the public.

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Provided by the organization

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3 programs · $248K · in their own filed words · FY2025
01

Published at least 50 weekly reports detailing the most urgent global risks, as well as 7 additional briefs on tooling and in-depth coverage. Maintained readiness of a team of 5 forecasters to make sense of risks and produce these briefs.

$107Kprogram expense
02

Increased number of newsletter subscribers on global risks from about 1k to about 5k

$85Kprogram expense
03

Built open source software to parse millions of news items to identify global risk signals.

$56Kprogram expense

Funders

Who pays for it.

From grant filings on record. Receipts are incomplete: individual donors are never listed.

Grants

Schedule I · funders on record
Grants received · FY2024
Total grants receivedfrom 3 funders$155K
See all 3 funders →

By the numbers

The FY2025 990, line by line.

1The main four
Money inPt VIII
$764K
Ln 12
Gifts and grantsLn 1h$744K
Fees for servicesLn 2g$19K
Investment incomeLn 3$702
Money outPt IX
$284K
Ln 25
Programscol B$248K
Managementcol C$37K
Owns and owesPt X
$683K
net assets · Ln 32
Cash and savingsLn 1–2$700K
Total assetsLn 16$700K
LiabilitiesLn 26$17K
PeoplePt VI, VII
4
listed · VII A
PaidVII A1
Voting boardVI 1a4
IndependentVI 1b2
2In more detail
Revenue in detailPt VIII
Gifts and grantsLn 1h$744K
Government grantsLn 1e$0
Noncash giftsLn 1g$0
Fundraising eventsLn 1c$0
Fees for servicesLn 2g$19K
Investment incomeLn 3$702
Total revenueLn 12$764K
Assets in detailPt X, end of year
CashLn 1$700K
SavingsLn 2$0
Cash and savings togetherLn 1–2$700K
InvestmentsLn 11–13$0
Other assetsLn 15$0
Total assetsLn 16$700K
LiabilitiesLn 26$17K
Net assetsLn 32$683K
OperationsPt I, VI
EmployeesI 51
VolunteersI 60
Fiscal year endsHeaderDecember
Conflict-of-interest policyVI 12aYes
Whistleblower policyVI 13Yes
Records policyVI 14Yes
3Year over year
Balance sheet, start vs end of yearPt X · col A, B
LineStart FY25End FY25
Cash and savingsLn 1–2$206K$700K
InvestmentsLn 11–13$0$0
Total assetsLn 16$206K$700K
LiabilitiesLn 26$2K$17K
Net assetsLn 32$204K$683K
4Every line
Statement of functional expensesPt IX · every line
LineTotalProgramsManagementFundraising
Pay of current officers, directors and key staffLn 5$47K$42K$5K
Payroll taxesLn 10$4K$3K$358
Accounting feesLn 11c$16K$16K
Other fees for servicesLn 11g$192K$179K$13K
Office expensesLn 13$1K$1K$125
Information technologyLn 14$11K$10K$1K
Travel and entertainment for public officialsLn 18$4K$4K$427
Other expenses (24a–d)Ln 24$10K$8K$1K$0
Total functional expensesLn 25$284K$248K$37K$0

Filing history

YearMoney inMoney outIn minus outNet assetsDownload
FY2025 Latest Viewing $764K$284K$480K$683K 990 PDF
FY2024 $215K$11K$204K$204K 990 PDF

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Schedules filed Part IV

III · Programs R · Related orgs G · Fundraising L · Interested persons I · Grants A · Public support O · Explanations
See the full FY2025 990 (6 parts)
Part I · Summary $764,034 revenue, 12 lines filed
I-8 Contributions and grantsPrior year $215,150$743,960
I-9 Program service revenuePrior year $0$19,372
I-10 Investment incomePrior year $8$702
I-11 Other revenuePrior year $0$0
I-12 Total revenuePrior year $215,158$764,034
I-13 Grants and similar amounts paidPrior year $0$0
I-14 Benefits paid to membersPrior year $0$0
I-15 Salaries and benefitsPrior year $0$50,246
I-16a Professional fundraising feesPrior year $0$0
I-17 Other expensesPrior year $11,461$234,245
I-18 Total expensesPrior year $11,461$284,491
I-19 Revenue less expensesPrior year $203,697$479,543
Part VI · Governance 2 of 4 board members independent, no flags
VI-1a Voting members of the governing body4
VI-1b Independent voting members2
VI-2 Family or business relationship among officers or directorsNo
VI-12a Written conflict of interest policyYes
VI-13 Written whistleblower policyYes
VI-14 Document retention and destruction policyYes
VI-15a Process for setting top official's payYes
Part VIII · Statement of revenue $764,034 across 11 lines filed
Lines not itemized here account for $19,372 of total revenue; see the IRS return.
VIII-1a Federated campaigns$0
VIII-1b Membership dues$0
VIII-1c Fundraising events$0
VIII-1d Related organizations$0
VIII-1e Government grants$0
VIII-1f All other contributions, gifts and grants$743,960
VIII-1g Noncash contributions (included above)$0
VIII-1h Total contributions, gifts and grants$743,960
VIII-3 Investment incomeRelated to mission $702 · Unrelated business $0 · Excluded from tax $0$702
VIII-5 RoyaltiesRelated to mission $0 · Unrelated business $0 · Excluded from tax $0$0
VIII-12 Total revenueRelated to mission $20,074 · Unrelated business $0 · Excluded from tax $0$764,034
Part IX · Statement of functional expenses $284,491 across 8 lines filed
IX-5 Pay of current officers, directors and key staffPrograms $42,000 · Management $4,667$46,667
IX-10 Payroll taxesPrograms $3,221 · Management $358$3,579
IX-11c Accounting feesManagement $15,635$15,635
IX-11g Other fees for servicesPrograms $179,125 · Management $13,165$192,290
IX-13 Office expensesPrograms $1,121 · Management $125$1,246
IX-14 Information technologyPrograms $10,101 · Management $1,122$11,223
IX-18 Travel and entertainment for public officialsPrograms $3,840 · Management $427$4,267
IX-24 Other expenses (24a–d)Programs $8,449 · Management $1,135 · Fundraising $0$9,584
IX-25 Total functional expensesPrograms $247,857 · Management $36,634 · Fundraising $0$284,491
Part X · Balance sheet $699,824 assets, 22 lines filed
X-1 Cash, non-interest-bearingStart of year $206,072$699,824
X-2 Savings and temporary cash investmentsStart of year $0$0
X-3 Pledges and grants receivableStart of year $0$0
X-4 Accounts receivableStart of year $0$0
X-8 Inventories for sale or useStart of year $0$0
X-9 Prepaid expenses and deferred chargesStart of year $0$0
X-11 Publicly traded securitiesStart of year $0$0
X-12 Other securitiesStart of year $0$0
X-13 Program-related investmentsStart of year $0$0
X-14 Intangible assetsStart of year $0$0
X-15 Other assetsStart of year $0$0
X-16 Total assetsStart of year $206,072$699,824
X-17 Accounts payable and accrued expensesStart of year $2,375$16,584
X-18 Grants payableStart of year $0$0
X-19 Deferred revenueStart of year $0$0
X-20 Tax-exempt bond liabilitiesStart of year $0$0
X-24 Unsecured notes and loans payableStart of year $0$0
X-26 Total liabilitiesStart of year $2,375$16,584
X-27 Net assets without donor restrictionsStart of year $203,697$683,240
X-28 Net assets with donor restrictionsStart of year $0$0
X-32 Total net assets or fund balancesStart of year $203,697$683,240
X-33 Total liabilities and net assetsStart of year $206,072$699,824
Part XI · Reconciliation of net assets $683,240 net assets at year end
XI-1 Total revenue$764,034
XI-2 Total expenses$284,491
XI-3 Revenue less expenses$479,543
XI-4 Net assets at start of year$203,697
XI-5 Net unrealized gains (losses) on investments$0
XI-6 Donated services and use of facilities$0
XI-7 Investment expenses$0
XI-8 Prior period adjustments$0
XI-9 Other changes in net assets$0
XI-10 Net assets at end of year$683,240

Form 990 e-file (XML) FY2025 from the IRS · Classification, formation year and address from the IRS Business Master File

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