Is it real?
Yes. Never revoked by the IRS. Latest filing on record: FY2025. IRS ruling in Feb 2023.
IRS Pub. 78 · IRS Auto-Revocation List · IRS Business Master File
Where the money goes
85 cents of each dollar spent went to programs.
Form 990 Part IX, line 25, columns B–D. Every line is in By the numbers.
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Who runs it and what they're paid
9 people listed on the 990; $642K paid to officers and key staff.
Joshua Rosenberg’s $189K as CEO & Treasurer is at the 66th percentile of top reported officer pay among 731 $1–10M public & societal benefit nonprofits. Peer set: organizations in the same NTEE major field of work and revenue-size band, compared on each org’s own highest-paid officer/key-employee, from Form 990 Part VII / 990-PF Part VIII. Descriptive placement, not a verdict on whether the pay is appropriate.
Compensation history total reportable pay by year · 7 named individuals · Part VII
| Name | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Rosenberg | $188,689 | $158,362 | $135,553 |
| Bridget Williams | $136,625 | — | — |
| Michael Page | — | — | $114,932 |
| Edward Connacher Murphy | $108,370 | — | — |
| Jordan Canedy | $104,306 | — | — |
| Astrid Sorflaten | $104,194 | $85,774 | $27,916 |
| Tegan McCaslin | — | — | $73,389 |
Total reportable compensation (Form 990 Part VII column D / Schedule J column E) by filing year, matched by name within this organization. The Schedule J base / bonus / deferred breakdown is not parsed into this dataset.
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Questions the 990 asks
The form asks each of these directly. These are the filed answers.
- Family or business ties among officersPt VI · Ln 2No
- Top official's pay set by an independent reviewPt VI · Ln 15aNo
Programs and updates
Improves public decisions by developing and testing better forecasting methods.
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Fri designed and ran many scientific experiments and expert elicitation surveys, and published 8 academic papers and technical reports all available on fri's website. Research focuses include surveys of experts beliefs about development economics, bioweapon use, and risks from artificial intelligence.
Funders
Who pays for it.
From grant filings on record. Receipts are incomplete: individual donors are never listed.
Grants
By the numbers
The FY2025 990, line by line.
Download 990
| Line | Start FY25 | End FY25 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and savingsLn 1–2 | $425K | $832K |
| InvestmentsLn 11–13 | $3.9M | $3.2M |
| Total assetsLn 16 | $5.1M | $10.1M |
| LiabilitiesLn 26 | $41K | $28K |
| Net assetsLn 32 | $5.0M | $10.0M |
| Line | Total | Programs | Management | Fundraising |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grants to domestic organizationsLn 1 | $145K | $145K | ||
| Grants and assistance to foreign recipientsLn 3 | $17K | $17K | ||
| Pay of current officers, directors and key staffLn 5 | $305K | $244K | $55K | $5K |
| Other salaries and wagesLn 7 | $1.3M | $1.0M | $233K | $22K |
| Pension plan contributionsLn 8 | $17K | $14K | $3K | $291 |
| Other employee benefitsLn 9 | $133K | $107K | $24K | $2K |
| Payroll taxesLn 10 | $178K | $143K | $32K | $3K |
| Accounting feesLn 11c | $16K | $14K | $2K | |
| Other fees for servicesLn 11g | $1.9M | $1.7M | $185K | |
| Office expensesLn 13 | $153K | $109K | $44K | |
| Information technologyLn 14 | $158K | $136K | $22K | |
| TravelLn 17 | $127K | $109K | $18K | |
| Conferences, conventions and meetingsLn 19 | $34K | $29K | $5K | |
| InsuranceLn 23 | $12K | $2K | $11K | |
| All other expensesLn 24e | $2K | $2K | ||
| Total functional expensesLn 25 | $4.4M | $3.8M | $637K | $32K |
Filing history
| Year | Money in | Money out | In minus out | Net assets | Download |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 Latest Viewing | $9.3M | $4.4M | $4.9M | $10.0M | 990 PDF |
| FY2024 | $3.1M | $2.3M | $805K | $5.0M | 990 PDF |
| FY2023 | $235K | $1.4M | −$1.2M | $4.2M | 990 PDF |
| FY2022 | $5.4M | $320 | $5.4M | $5.4M | 990 PDF |
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Schedules filed Part IV
See the full FY2025 990 (4 parts)
Part VIII · Statement of revenue $9,328,264 across 5 lines filed
Part IX · Statement of functional expenses $4,429,518 across 15 lines filed
Part X · Balance sheet $10,072,595 assets, 15 lines filed
Part XI · Reconciliation of net assets $10,044,896 net assets at year end
Form 990 e-file (XML) FY2025 from the IRS · Classification, formation year and address from the IRS Business Master File
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